League of Legends LCS preview: TSM vs. Clutch – the final gasp of TSM?

Prediction

Going into this article, I thought the stats would bear out the notion that TSM, while flawed and slumping, is ultimately the stronger team. However, the numbers overwhelmingly point to a Clutch win.

Collectively, Clutch is a better team than TSM in the early game (55.6 early game rating vs. 47.9), averaging over 800 gold more at the 15-minute mark. The get first blood more often (61% FB rate vs. 50% for TSM), get first tower more often (LCS-best 78% first tower rate vs. 39% for TSM, second-worst). Clutch gets first dragon (44% vs. 39%) and Rift Herald (67% vs. 50%) more often, enabling them to place more vision than any other team.

Additionally, TSM is just plain out-matched in every lane other than mid based on the players’ summer performance. Absent a return to spring form from some (or ideally all) of the TSM members, TSM’s only real win condition is to play through mid and hope Bjergsen can run the game over. Alternatively, if they are able to keep bot lane stable (which isn’t impossible) they can rely on their late game team fighting and macro to win (or just hope that Clutch’s abysmal macro will throw the game to them).

Clutch, on the other hand, has multiple win conditions to play through in the early game. They can camp for Huni, who should be able to get ahead of Broken Blade or gank an often over-extended TSM bot lane. In either case, they should have a massive jungle advantage with LirA’s veteran presence to pressure Spica in his own jungle and dictate the pace agaainst a team that already struggles early.

Prediction: 3-1 Clutch

The LCS Summer Playoffs begin with the quarterfinal match between TSM and Clutch airing at 5 PM EST on Twitch.tv/Riotgames