LCS Spring Split 2020: Week 7 Team Power Ranking

5. Dignitas (5-9)

Elo: 354 (-36)

The ultimate test-case of elo not matching record, we have Dignitas who came down the final stretch of games with perhaps the easiest schedule of any team left. If they had managed to just split the games last week, I would have said that their strength of schedule was so easy that they’d be almost guaranteed a playoff spot.

Unfortunately, DIG lost both games to 100 Thieves and Golden Guardians, putting them three games out of the playoffs despite the fact that their elo rating says they should be much higher. Now those two losses did give them one of the biggest drops in elo this week and turned two of their remaining games from predicted wins to dogfights. At this point, Dignitas is likely out of the playoffs unless they win out, which is possible but unlikely.

Remaining schedule: CLG (+108), Evil Geniuses (+6), Immortals (+6), TSM (-64)
Estimated remaining/final record: 1.5-2.5 / 6.5-11.5
Playoff odds: 10%

4. 100 Thieves (7-7)

Elo: 384 (+31)

Of all the 7-7 teams, 100 Thieves have the highest elo, but also the hardest schedule remaining, having to face all three of the top-ranked teams down the stretch. Luckily for them, they also have CLG in their remaining schedule, which should net them at least 8 wins. With how poor the LCS has been this year, 8-10 might actually be good enough to make playoffs.

Taking down Immortals and Dignitas, both teams that will be fighting for those final playoff spots, was huge for 100 Thieves both in terms of confidence and tiebreakers, as they’re now 1-1 with both of those teams. They have split with every other team around them except Golden Guardians, who they are 2-0 against, so even with this tough schedule 100 Thieves should be positioned to at least get a play-in game.

Remaining schedule: Cloud9 (-167), FlyQuest (-41), TSM (-33), CLG (+138)
Estimated remaining/final record: 1-3 / 8-10
Playoff odds: 65%

3. TSM (8-6)

Elo: 417 (+52)

One week ago, I was bashing TSM for their poor play and weird drafts, saying Bjergsen was the worst mid laner in the LCS, and basically penciling them in to be 6-8 and needing to scrap to make playoffs. Well, apparently TSM fans should be hoping that I bash their team and players because TSM stunned everyone by beating FlyQuest and Cloud9, the only team yet to beat NA’s number one team. Bjergsen also popped off, earning himself Player of the Week honors with spectacular performances on his signature Zilean and Irelia.

These wins were obviously huge for TSM in that they put them one game clear of the pack with four games to go (and a relatively easy remaining schedule), boosting their elo, and tying them for second with the FlyQuest team they just beat. However, there is also one reason that TSM’s win over C9 is so huge.

With the new playoff format, the best team will get to select their opponent (either the third or fourth-place teams) for the first round. By beating C9, TSM has all but assured themselves that C9 will not pick them if they have the choice (i.e. if TSM doesn’t finish second).

Remaining schedule: Immortals (+69), Golden Guardians (+69), 100 Thieves (+33), Dignitas (+64)
Estimated remaining/final record: 4-0 / 12-6
Playoff odds: 85%

2. FlyQuest (8-6)

Elo: 425 (-48)

Despite going 0-2 this weekend, I’m not all that worried about FlyQuest. Their losses came against two teams that, yes, they should have beaten. But both TSM and EG were surging this last weekend so the losses for FlyQuest are understandable.

Like TSM, they still have pole position and a one-game lead over the rest of the pack, so they are likely going to make the playoffs. Their remaining schedule is also a bit easier than TSM’s (according to elo). I don’t see any way FlyQuest doesn’t at least split their last four games, which would likely assure them the number two or three seed.

Remaining schedule: Immortals (+77), 100 Thieves (+41), Team Liquid (+87), Golden Guardians (+77)
Estimated remaining/final record: 4-0 / 12-6
Playoff odds: 90%

1. Cloud9 (13-1)

Elo: 551 (-34)

First of all, I just want to shout Captain Flowers for his great Predator reference during the C9/TSM game. The fact that Cloud9 lost does at least confirm that they can be beaten by a team playing at their peak. However, C9 are still the kings of the LCS, they’re still the number one team in the league (they’ve locked the number one seed going into playoffs), and they should still be the heavy favorites in any game they play.

Remaining schedule: 100 Thieves (+167), CLG (+305), Evil Geniuses (+204), Team Liquid (+213)
Estimated remaining/final record: 4-0 / 17-1
Playoff odds: 100%

Predicted Final Standings

1. Cloud9 (17-1)
2. FlyQuest (12-6)
3. TSM (12-5)
4. Golden Guardians (9-9)
5. 100 Thieves (8-10)
6. Evil Geniuses (8-10)
7. Immortals (8-10)
8. Dignitas (7-11)
9. Team Liquid (7-11)
10. CLG (3-15)